While Washington insists pressure is working and Tehran claims resilience; attacks have continued, oil markets are moving, and ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated warnings of disruption.
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In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban unpack why oil prices haven’t exploded, whether Iran is losing one of its most powerful bargaining chips, and what the movement of ships in the Gulf tells us about what could happen next.
And what does the resignation of UK Defence Secretary John Healey tell us about how the UK is preparing for a more unstable world?
They’re joined by Yael Selfin, Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Chief Economist at KPMG, to ask whether markets are underestimating the risks - and what this could mean for fuel prices, inflation and the wider economy.
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